Dictators all have an inherent problem. Once they are completely in charge and every vestige of democracy has morphed into satiric mockery when things go wrong, really wrong, there is no one else the people will blame but them. Russian President, Vladimir Putin is learning that hard lesson as I type.
CNN' reporter, Fareed Zakaria described Putin's, "contract," with the Russian population this way--sort of--if they let him run things he will basically leave, them alone, make sure they have steady jobs and provide them with a workable, although not great economy. In exchange they'll look the other way while he and his pals steal everything that isn't tied down. Zakaria described the system, accurately, as a, "kleptocracy."
Even when it comes to military adventurism, like the take over of Crimea, as long as it happens nearly painlessly and fast with no real interruptions in daily life it is okay with the population. Besides, who doesn't like a little imperialism now and then? Especially when life is appallingly mediocre, and the weather is always rotten. Hey, it's good for the national ego.
Unfortunately for everyone involved, as Zakaria pointed out, Mr. Putin has now broken that unwritten contract with the Russian populace. That's what happens when you put yourself in a position that requires you to call up nearly a half million, "reservists," to fight a war you recklessly started for fun and some twisted idea of glory.
Indeed, a steady job doesn't mean much when the government pulls you out of it then sends you off into a meat grinder with little, or no real training. Yes, Putin might not call it a war, in fact you can go to jail, for just saying it is a war, but semantics mean very little to the average Russian who might have been anything from a student to an accountant, when there is a real possibility they'll get their asses shot off.
Of course, Putin never lacks a political plan to justify this, "partial mobilization." Right now the Russians are conducting a vote in the parts of Ukraine they still control. There is one question on the ballot, Something akin to, "Do you want to be annexed into the Russian Federation?" Presumably the campaign slogan for the referendum is along the lines of, "Vote yes and no one gets hurt."
When the results come in, a couple of minutes after the polls close for appearances sake, Vlad can tell those 300,000 poor souls he is forcing into service they aren't invading anyone, they are defending, "Mother Russia," from the Nazi hordes. This, as opposed to simply saving the Russian speaking population from Nazis, the excuse he used to start this whole nightmare to begin with.
On a darker note, Putin went on Russian TV, a day late, this past week saying threats to Russian territory--no matter how new and illegitimate they might be--will be answered with every available Russian weapons system. Then he added, "This is not a bluff."
It might not be. Years ago a guy I knew who spent some time in Russia and not just Moscow, told me, there was no reason to fear the Russian army. He said their equipment and training were terrible. He probably knew what he was talking about since he spent two tours in Vietnam with Army Intelligence. But he added, the reason to worry about Russia is all their nukes. Those were the real danger.
Last week thousands and thousands of Russians headed for places like Finland and Turkey because they didn't want any part of Putin's war, regardless of what he calls it. Protesters hit the streets in a number of cities which is a gutsy move considering the amount of hard time you can do for such behavior. The Russians are attempting to ban draft eligible men from international travel. If a Russian court decides one of their men surrendered voluntarily they can sentence him to 10 years once he gets home. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are promising safe haven for any Russian soldier who throws down his weapons and surrenders.
It would seem like Russian morale on the ground lacks the elan Mr. Putin would like. Good news, right?. No, because ultimately it creates a situation which makes his nuclear threat a tad too real.
All of which brings us to this question. If Putin has broken his contract with the Russian people, how far will he have to push them before they break their contract with him?
9-25-22
I has fascinated me for a long time that one person can control the destinies of so many. One has to assume dictators have more solid support than what we in the USA have always been taught. I think we have been awakened to that fact by the rise of Donald Trump. Indeed, to this day, we still see the occasional article or news piece on Hitler loyalists - 77 years after the end of WW2.
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