Well it looks like republicans think they've reached high tide and green grass. Party officials and the faithful are utterly convinced the GOP will control the senate after the dust settles tomorrow. Polls indicate those good ol' boys have every reason to be confident.
All they need is a net gain of six seats, which is easily within reach.
According to the latest NBC/Marist polls the republicans are favored to win in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. That leaves them needing a mere three additional seats, so long as they don't lose any they already hold.
The numbers crunched by the NBC/Marist people make that possibility seem faint indeed. Much to the chagrin of democrats everywhere, not to mention republican senator Ted Cruz, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell appears to be pulling away from challenger Alison Grimes in Kentucky. He currently leads her 50% to 41%.
The Grimes campaign is suing the Kentucky republican party because of what is being called "official looking mailers," sent to voters in the eastern part of the state. On the outside of the envelopes, in bold print, are the words, "Election Violation Notice." The Grimes' people say the mailing was meant to intimidate potential voters and keep them from the polls. While they may have a point it is doubtful a court action at this late date will help her win.
In Georgia, where republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss is retiring, GOP candidate David Perdue leads democrat Michelle Nunn 48% to 44%. However, there is a kicker. Libertarian candidate, Amanda Swafford could pull down just enough votes to cause tomorrow's winner to come in under 50%. If that is the case, Nunn and Perdue would face each other in a runoff election which would be held during the first week of January. Estimates of exactly how much national money both parties would pour into a Georgia runoff are so high even the Koch brothers might flinch at the final tab.
A similar situation exists in Louisiana where democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu is currently leading two challengers. One is an establishment republican named, Bill Cassidy, the other is Rob Maness, a tea party wank who has the support of our old pal, Sarah Palin. Landrieu has 44% of the vote at the moment and if she fails to get 50% she'll face either Cassidy, or Maness, who is running a distant third, in a runoff. Unfortunately for her the same poll shows she will lose to either one of them in a face to face contest.
In Iowa democrat, Tom Harkin is retiring. Republican, Joni Ernst--known primarily for her TV ads which show her firing handguns and bragging about castrating hogs has a slight lead over opponent, Bruce Braley.
In the end, all this means, if you throw in Iowa and Louisiana, the republicans need only one more win in places like Arkansas, Alaska, Colorado, and North Carolina to control the senate.
Yes, conservatives everywhere will be high fiving themselves while claiming Americans have finally returned to their senses. They will call the results a complete repudiation of Barack Obama's presidency.
Yeah, yeah, that is all fine and good, but they continue to have problem--Obama will still be president. And while they'll chair committees and drive the legislation in the next congress, republicans will still be required to get 60 votes to get something passed in the upper house and they certainly won't have the numbers to override a presidential veto.
So, where does that leave us? Why it would be the same old traffic jam we've been stuck in for the last six years.
Tomorrow might be a symbolic victory for the right wing, but it is by no means the same sort of tectonic shift on the scale which accompanied Ron Reagan's election.
Let's face it, after tomorrow night's debauched orgy of alcohol, grotesque sexual displays, and self congratulation, the republicans will face two years of abject legislative failure. Then comes 2016 when they get to face Mrs. Hillary Rodham Clinton in a presidential election. Good luck with that one guys and gals.
Finally, for those of you counting, as of yesterday this blog is three years old.
In honor of the occasion the first round is on me.