Monday, November 24, 2014

Ferguson, Missouri and Presidential Polls: Only Time Will Tell

That Missouri grand jury apparently has come to a decision on whether to indict Ferguson police officer, Darren Williams in the shooting death of unarmed teenager Michael Brown. According to reports both the St. Louis County prosecutor and the Missouri governor are preparing for news conferences to be held later in the day.

So, as police and possibly National Guard units prepare to deploy perhaps it is best to consider another subject until we know what is going to happen on the banks of the Mississippi.

Late last week NBC and The Wall Street Journal commissioned a poll to look at where potential 2016 presidential candidates stand at the moment. The results show Americans don't like any of them very much.

On the democratic side, for an unfathomable reason, the poll covered two candidates. When asked about Jumpin' Joe Biden 35% of respondents viewed him favorably while 38% considered him negatively. Of course a Biden candidacy is a doomed enterprise unless Hillary Rodham Clinton stuns everyone by deciding not to run.

Mrs. Clinton's positive rating was 43% while her negative number was 40%. If there is such a thing as a perfect example of the political divide in this nation, she is it. 78% of democrats who were asked gave her a favorable rating while 81% of republicans ranked her unfavorably.

It gets bleaker on the GOP side.

Rand Paul's positive number was 26% versus the negative which is 23%. Marco Rubio was up 21% to 19%. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, currently a FOX News shill, was viewed positively by 35% and negatively by 24%.

Those three potential republican candidates were the only ones with their heads above water. The two good ol' boys from Texas, Ted Cruz and Rick Perry polled 16% positive to 26% negative and 20% positive to 29% negative respectively. Jeb Bush, who is mulling over an attempted extension of the family dynasty, polled 26% positive and 33% negative. NJ governor, Chris Christie broke even at 29% each.

The big man has a problem though. His negative rating among republicans--you know--the people who will be voting in the primaries, is 19%. Cruz's negative rating among the faithful is 12% and Bush's is 13%. Huckabee seems to be the only one who energizes the grass roots at this time. His favorable rating among fellow travelers is 52% while his negative number is 8%.

What all this means is any one's guess. Cruz has never done well outside of that bad acid trip known as the tea party and Perry could well be considered an abject loser by many on the right. A backlash to anti immigration reform might have something to do with it, although Bush's pro reform stand certainly hasn't given him any momentum.

Obviously Huckabee's presence on FOX has helped his image. Let's face it, it's impossible not to look and sound presidential when you're on a network populated by lying cretins like Bill O'Reilly and Sean Hannity.

Wisconsin governor Scott Wilson and Dr. Ben Carson were also thrown in the mix. Wilson's positive number with members of the GOP is a respectable 27%, but falls to 15% overall. Carson's positive is just above 10%, although Carrie Dann's article says he does much better with tea party types. Unfortunately there are a couple of stunning stats both men will have to overcome between now and 2016. According to the poll, 54% of everyone asked didn't realize Scott Wilson is a governor of anything. Then--when it comes to Ben Carson--61% said they don't know who the fuck he is. In the initial months of their campaigns, the two of them are going to have spend a ton of valuable advertising dollars on time which does nothing more than let the general public know who they are.

So there we have it here on what could be a long night in the greater St. Louis metro. In both cases only time well tell--although one is going to happen much quicker than the other.

sic vita est


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