Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Polls: Hillary Yes and Chris Maybe Not

I personally believe, even if it takes a change in the law, the president should honor the commitment the federal government made to those people and let them keep what they got.

Wild Bill Clinton talking about the Affordable Care Act in an interview with the web site, OZY

For those of you who don't follow politics, or are simply unfamiliar with U.S. presidential races, Clinton's remark is known as "distancing oneself from either a current policy, or politician you have previously supported." Think John McCain and George W. Bush, or practically every republican with a functioning brain stem and Sarah Palin.

No, Billy Jeff can't run again, but his wife can and almost certainly will. And neither of them want the mainstream electorate blaming them for the blunders of Barack Obama.

In the latest NBC poll, Hillary Clinton looks to be, what can best be described as, the runaway front runner among democrats for the 2016 nomination. At this very early point the poll numbers show 66% of democrats support nominating her while only 14% oppose and 34% remain undecided. Breaking it down further NBC reports there isn't a demographic out there where she lags. She has over 70% support among women, white democrats, seniors, low income voters, and in both the northeast and midwest. Her lowest numbers are among men, 62%, college grads 62% and upper income democrats, 60%.

That is the good news if you are Marc Mezvinsky's mother in law. The not so great news is those numbers are inflated because at this moment there isn't a viable alternative to her. At least not one who is making noises about running. Ultimately it is a catch--22 situation. The numbers are huge because she has no real opposition, but because they are so huge she might not get any. Biden is headed to the farm and while recently there has been some minor chatter about Elizabeth Warren, it stretches the imagination to believe she'd actually mount a campaign to challenge the Clinton machine.

The brutal truth is Warren is still a rookie and Hillary Rodham Clinton can't wait. During the next presidential election the nation will be 16 years removed from the last time a Clinton lived in the white house. That is long enough for most people to get past the queasy feeling of a Clinton over dose that was around eight years ago. Indeed, if she runs and doesn't win in 2016 she will be a two time loser and two time losers are done in national politics. If she doesn't run her next shot would be in 2020 against either a republican incumbent, or worse, an incumbent from her own party. So, to paraphrase the NBA playoff catchphrase, "Win in 2016, or go home."

The other person the poll concentrated on was the republican star de jour, Chris Christie. The governor of New Jersey just won re-election by a whopping margin in a blue state and he has the media's full attention at the moment.

He also has problems. The poll shows he has the support of 32% of GOP voters, while 31% would prefer someone else. 37% were undecided. There is no one outside of Ted Cruz and Karl Rove who would call those figures a mandate. NBC reports he does well among minorities with 46%, seniors with 48% and republicans in the northeast with 57%.

However, among the 18 to 29 year old demographic his support is a mere 15%. In the south his number is 27%, in the midwest 30% and in what the poll defines as the west only 22%. In other words, there is nothing there to either write home about, or go to a big money donor with and say I am the man.

Yes, that civil war we've mentioned is brewing and it will get ugly. One tea party wag was quoted by NBC as saying, "We're so frustrated with all this Christie talk we can't see straight. He's no more conservative than Harry Reid."

God love 'em. The tea party rubes still don't understand they'll never win a national election. They have eaten the mushrooms and dropped the acid and their wild eyed roller coaster ride through the looking glass apparently will never end.

In the hypothetical match up between Clinton and Christie there is a ten point spread with her in the lead. However all the same signs are there from the last two elections. She leads among African Americans, Latinos, and the 18-29 age group. She trails among whites by 4 points, seniors by 3, and--surprise surprise--among high income voters by 12. It is hard to believe any of those numbers, or demographics would change significantly with a fire breathing yahoo from the right edge of the party, even if he does inspire huge numbers of the tea party crowd to grab their penises and tug on them vigorously.

It is a long way to 2016. In 2008 Mrs. Clinton had an early lead and watched it slip away to Barack Obama, but this time around there simply isn't anyone else out there. God only knows how Christie will play outside of New Jersey. However, we can be assured there will be a whole flock of angry birds screeching wildly about his politics to the true believers. The early feeling is he isn't going to be the GOP guy, but it also seems unfathomable that the republican party, would commit suicide by unleashing Ted Cruz upon the populace with their actual blessing. From this angle it looks like the situation is, as they say, fluid and the real GOP nominee is perhaps some name the media hasn't fixated on yet.

I suppose that is why they invented campaigns and the sociopaths who run them.

It is cold and clear here on the southern plains this afternoon. Keep a clear eye, because there is no telling what tomorrow will bring.

As always, keep moving and don't bunch up. After all, we don't want them to get us all with one burst.

The smoking lamp is lit. That is all.


No comments:

Post a Comment