Dem polls, dem polls, dem new polls...
With apologies to James W. Johnson, J. Rosamond Johnson, and Fats Waller.
Yes we can't escape them, or at least the media won't let us. The latest political poll to hit the news comes from a survey taken and sponsored by Boston's Suffolk University and USA Today. It was limited in scope, based on 500 phone calls to Iowans who claim to be democrats and are committed to attending the state caucuses in a little over 100 days. Significantly, it also came on the heels of last week's democratic debate.
If accurate--and we know that isn't always the case--there should be joy somewhere in South Bend, IN tonight. That's because the numbers crunched show the mayor of that burg, Pete Buttigieg is gaining fast on Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden.
In fact he is within the 4.4% margin of error the poll allows. USA Today reported this morning Biden leads with 18%, Warren came in second at 17%, and Buttigieg is at a tad over 13%.
The shift toward Buttigieg apparently is a direct result of the candidate's performance last week. If the respondents were actually telling the truth, 40% of them said Mayor Pete did better in the last round than they expected. Interestingly enough another 30% said Minnesota Senator, Amy Klobuchar did better than expected, but her actual statewide support refuses to rise higher than 3%. On the other hand, 25% agreed former VP, Biden, who in June had a huge lead in Iowa, tanked last week's televised get together in Ohio.
Stuck in the middle of the Iowa race is Vermont Senator, Bernie Sanders who registered 9%. That is exactly where he was in the June poll. Besides Klobuchar, the fabulously well to do, Tom Steyer, CA Senator, Kamala Harris, and HI Representative, Tulsi Gabbard were all hovering right at, or just above 3%. It's unknown at this time if Gabbard's unhinged anti Hillary Clinton rants on Twitter in the last couple of days have shrunk, or improved her numbers.
So the results are pure gold to Buttigieg, right? Well, it is certainly better than what happened to Senator Harris. In June she was at 16%, but now languishes with the people wearing the unenviable label of third tier candidates.
Indeed, when it comes to the Hawkeye state nothing is settled. While the Mayor's support jumped, so did the percentage of undecided democrats. In this latest poll that number went up by eight points and now sits at 29%.
That's a lot of people. However it is small compared to the 63% who say even though they now have a preferred candidate, they are open to changing their minds before the caucuses occur.
Oops.
Yes, Iowa remains, as they say, in flux. However one thing has become crystal clear. Joe Biden's early gangbusters lead--everywhere--is melting away like an ice cube on a hot sidewalk. It is starting to dawn on everyone, from coast to coast, if he can't hang with fellow democrats on a stage, where things remain relatively civil, he will never be able to compete with the bellicose, sound bite driven, lying son of a bitch who lays in wait.
sic vita est
10-21-19
Joe is being front runner nice. I expect that will stop as we get into next year. People forget, Joe is a bit of a street brawler and mauler himself. Remember the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings? I think he will be just fine - if he weathers the competition and maintains his lead.
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