Way back in the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump won Michigan's 16 electoral votes by a margin of 10,704 votes. When broken down into percentages that means Trump got 47.50% of the ballots to Hillary Clinton's 47.27%. It is a margin of 0.23% which any student of elections will say is one close thing.
There were other candidates on the ballot that year. Among them was libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. He raked in 172,136 votes, or 3.59% of those cast. Green party candidate, Jill Stein won 51,463 which translated into 1.07% of ballots cast.
Now, what do those statistics teach us? Well, for one thing it means when someone tells you fringe candidates from third and even fourth parties don't mean anything in U.S. national elections you know they're full of shit.
No, moving Michigan's 16 electoral votes from Trump to Clinton wouldn't have changed the end result of the 2016 election, but it would have reduced his edge from 77 to 45. It might have even provided more credence to the argument that the electoral college is, at best, a midieval process for choosing a president.
All of which brings us to the year of our Lord, 2020.
Donald Trump's goose is prime for cooking, although his base remains as loyal and fanatical as ever. In other words, despite displaying an incompetence so deadly his policies have directly led to over 60,000 American deaths--and counting--the man is going to get a lot of fucking votes.
Enter the democrats. Their problem is Barack H. Obama isn't available to run against Trump and the best they could do in his absence is Joe Biden. It's not that Biden is a poor choice, it is just that he is a mediocre one who has all the look of a one term place holder. At least until the party can come up with someone younger who isn't so prone to screwing up during press conferences and no showing at debates. They also have to deal with, not Bernie Sanders himself, but his hard core supporters who possess the exquisite resolve of kamikaze pilots.
Now comes Justin Amash. Mr. Amash has sat in the House of Representatives since 2011 as a republican. Like many true conservatives he quickly became disenchanted by Don Trump. In July, 2019, appalled by the GOP's acquiescence to Trump's severe insanity, he became an independent. Early this year democrats cheered when he voted for impeachment while lauding him for his belief in the constitution.
Well they aren't cheering now. Last month Justin Amash became a libertarian--the first one to ever sit in the house. The other day he told everyone he was forming a presidential exploratory committee. In short he is going to run on the libertarian ticket against Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
The Congressman--as you guessed--is from Michigan.
Oops.
Things just became more complicated for Mr. Biden and that's the last thing our man Joe needs. Indeed, this fall, every vote for Biden has to be considered precious. Conversely, every vote not for him becomes one for The Big Orange Guy. And that includes ones cast for Amash and the despicable Jill Stein if she decides to run again.
Yes, thanks to Justin Amash the nightmare of a second Trump term just became more possible. This despite a three plus year reign of vivid lies, gross stupidity, and corruption so arrogantly flagrant the current resident of the White House should be confined forever to a maximum security prison on Mars.
Ladies and gentlemen, as we know times are tough, but this is getting a tad too much.
sic vita est
4-30-20
And the solid citizens of Michigan in protest. Trump retains his popularity because a large number of people like what he says and does. Where did we go wrong?
ReplyDelete