Monday, January 5, 2026

It Isn't the Drugs, or Democracy: It's the Oil

 No, it wasn't about the drugs. It was never about the drugs. We knew that when Donald Trump pardoned former Honduran President, Juan Orlando Hernandez who had been convicted of smuggling 400 tons of cocaine into the United States. When it happened we all knew it wasn't because Hernandez was innocent, despite what Trump said to the media. It was because the guy was arrested and convicted by the Joe Biden administration and Donald Trump is completely obsessed with erasing everything Biden and Barack Obama did while they were in office. 

It wasn't because Nicolas Maduro lost a legal election then stayed in office by refusing to recognize the results. Although one could see where that might rub Brother Don the wrong way--Maduro succeeded where Trump failed. No, it wasn't for the noble cause of democracy. If it was, Trump, Rubio, and the rest wouldn't let Maduro's fellow socialist, Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez help run the country. He certainly wouldn't have dismissed opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado as a, "nice lady," but who "lacks respect," in her country. (She might also be another sore spot for El Donald. Machado won that Nobel Peace Prize he had quite publicly coveted.)

In fact, Trump is so disinterested in democracy for Venezuela, reports are the name of Edmundo Gonzalez, the guy who actually beat Maduro in the election, didn't even come up during the discussion of who should be running things for the U.S. in Venezuela. (Hey, Trump and his MAGA loyalists aren't really enamored with democracy here, why should they be in South America?}

Yes, for those who remained in doubt about what the snatch and grab of Nicolas Maduro was all about it was hammered home during the Saturday morning presser. As MS Now's Ali Velshi pointed out, during the press conference, Donald Trump mentioned drugs--the charges used as the pretense to arrest Maduro in the first place--five, or six times. However, he mentioned oil over 25 times. That's right, baby, to paraphrase the theme song, "Black gold, Venezuelan tea." Barrels of it, thousands upon tens of thousands of barrels of it--something, not coincidently, Honduras doesn't have.

In the end, Donald Trump and his billionaire donors don't give a rat's ass about the drugs, or who is running Venezuela, or how. All they care about is getting their hands on all that oil. The whole affair is reminiscent of a line from one of the late Mike McQuay's novels. The protagonist faces the corporate villain who tells him, "Son, the meek might inherit the earth, but not until we're done with it." 

Of course, as history teaches us--but we never seem to learn--it is a lot easier to bring down a regime than it is to establish and run a new one. Trump's idea seems to be, although no one is sure at the moment, is to run Venezuela sans Maduro by committee. Right now, the committee consists of Rubio, Secretary of Defense/War, Pete Hegseth, and the somewhat reluctant Delcy Rodriguez. Where the Venezuelan military and the fabled militia/gangs fit in all this is still unknown, even to Trump, who always promises more than he can deliver when it comes to foreign policy. 

What we do know is Trump's oil driven Venezuelan adventure undercuts any U.S. argument against Russian and Chinese imperialist expansion. Let's face it, if parts, or all of South America is fair game for U.S. ambitions (not to mention Greenland) why shouldn't Ukraine and the Baltic States be fair game for Russia's? And why shouldn't everyplace in the East and South China Seas, including Taiwan be the same for China? 

Who knows? Maybe Trump and his pals just don't care about those other places. When it comes to Ukraine there is some evidence to support that notion. Hell, maybe a global triumvirate is what the old bastard has been shooting for all along. Trump, Putin, and Xi--the 21st century's three amigos.

Nicolas Maduro and his wife currently reside in a federal lockup in Brooklyn, NY. They are both there because the paperwork says drugs. What they are really there for, however, is they wouldn't give up the oil. So, Donald Trump decided to take it.

In other words, when Trump's donors demanded it, he showed them the money. Whether he can deliver it though, remains to be seen. Don't trust just me. Trust history. Before this is over it's going to get a lot more complicated and costly.  


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