When Donald Trump showed up on TV early Saturday morning to announce the United States and Israel had gone to war against Iran. Most were shocked. One presumes especially in Iran where the bombs were already raining down. Members of congress, those precious few who still believe in the U.S. Constitution were quick to point out the President, on paper anyway, has to have congressional approval before he, or she, can start a, "war," with anyone, anywhere. Apparently, these poor idealistic souls still don't realize Donald trump doesn't give a flying fuck what the Constitution says. He's never even read the thing for God's sake.
Others with a more conspiratorial bent found the timing a tad suspicious. It came just hours after Hillary and Bill Clinton were grilled by a Congressional committee about their connections to Jeffrey Epstein. When the committee came up with zilch, the calls for Donald Trump to also be deposed under oath about his involvement in the ugly affair reached a fever pitch. Then, suddenly, all hell broke loose in the skies over Tehran. Was it a mere coincidence, or another deadly Trump distraction taken to the extreme?
While not totally dismissing paranoia--in certain towns the next guy kicking in your door probably does work for Kristi Noem--the attack on Iran looks to have been in the planning stages for a while. In all likelihood the trip wire was hit when the negotiations with the Iranians ended in Geneva, not by the Clintons walking away clean in some snowy New York village. In fact, the very presence of the Israelis guarantees intricate planning. Unlike the U.S. they don't go charging into these things like a wild eyed, brashly overconfident, George Armstrong Custer. They simply can't afford to.
However, despite the surprise and the secrecy involved ((another Israeli necessity) there are now indications there were few people out there who absolutely knew the attack was coming. We aren't talking about astute political analysts, or even psychic mystics and prophets. We are talking about high rolling gamblers of unknown origin.
For those out there who aren't up with the world of online wagering, there are sites out there like, Kalshi and Polymarket which are somewhat euphemistically called, "prediction markets." In other words, you establish an anonymous account with them, then bet a large sum of money that something--anything really--will happen, be it bad, or good. The odds depend on how outlandish the prediction is determined to be. They payoff, like, the wager, is made to that anonymous account.
The Independent reports the first hint that a high-level fix might be in on some bets came in January of this year. According to the story, that month, an individual with a, "fairly new," account bet $36,000 that Venezuelan leader, Nicolas Maduro would be ousted. Literally a few hours later, Trump sent in the troops and wham bam, Maduro and his wife were sitting in a a New York detention center. The payoff was $436,000.
It was, perhaps a test run for what was to happen this past weekend.
Prior to Trump's surprise announcement of war with Iran, The Independent claims, Kalshi received $36 million in bets, "related to whether or not there would be a regime change in Iran." In the hours leading up to the attacks, Polymarket booked $31 million in bets that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei wouldn't be in power after March 31st this year.
That's right. There are a select few who just made a killing on all the killing.
It's unknown who operates these sites, or whether they will honor the contracts (the wagers are technically contracts) or, given the circumstances, declare the transactions invalid. One thing is certain though. If someone tried to collect on a blatantly rigged bet like this in Vegas, the only thing they'd cash in on is a one-way trip deep into the Mojave Desert.
Yes, in the 21st century you no longer need to own a factory to become a war profiteer. All you need is an online bookie and a little inside dope about who is getting hit and when. It might be disgusting, but it is perfectly legal.
Who says America isn't great?
3-2-26