The latest Monmouth University Polling Institute numbers have the talking heads on MSNBC and CNN buzzing. This despite the fact the poll's admitted error range, plus, or minus 5.7%, is huge compared to others.
In the latest survey Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders lead the pack with 20% each and former Vice President Joe Biden is running a close third with 19%.
This tectonic shift away from Mr. Biden can best be blamed not on anything Sanders and Warren have done, or said, but rather Biden himself. Obama's former VEEP, who has always had a reputation for goofs and gaffs, went out of his way in the past few weeks to make himself look, not just shaky, but outright senile.
First Mr. Biden confused Burlington, Iowa with Burlington, Vermont. Next he went delusional on a Trumpian scale, claiming he was Vice President when the Parkland, FL school shooting took place and as such spoke with survivors of the nightmare. For those who have had their memories numbed by the never ending exercises in murderous American behavior, that particular mass shooting took place about a year and a half after Biden left office.
Perhaps the biggest indicator of Joe B's slide came from the age demographic. Monmouth's poll showed his support at 33% of democrats over the age of 50, but at a mere 6% of dems younger than 50.
That doesn't mean it is high tide and green grass for Bernie and Liz though. 22% of those asked were in favor of junking all private insurance in favor of medicare coverage. 53%, on the other hand, were more comfortable with a public option. In other words they want a choice of keeping their private coverage, or deciding to go with medicare, something both progressive senators have refused to support.
When it comes to Sanders' idea of immediately wiping out private medical insurance, 22% approve while a public option plan leading toward medicare for all has the support of 33% of democrats. A full 21% want only minor tweaks in America's health care system.
That is a lot of democrats who don't agree on a major issue with both Warren and Sanders. Only time will tell if it is a deal breaker for most of them despite their general contempt for the current resident of the White House.
The rest of the vast democratic field is in a world of hurt. Senator Kamala Harris polled at 8%, Cory Booker and Mayor Pete Buttigieg were at 4%, while Andrew Yang, the $1,000 a month man, was at 3%. Despite strong debate performances Julian Castro is stuck at 2% along with Beto O'Rourke, and Marianne Williamson. Bill de Blasio, Tulsi Gabbard, and Amy Klobuchar are at 1%. Everyone else, including NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is polling at less than 1%.
Those kind of numbers, without something truly unexpected happening--like winning a huge Power Ball jackpot--means donors will be fleeing from you at a rate that soon even a camping trip to Iowa might end up busting the campaign budget.
Yes at some point coming quickly the one, two, and three percenters are going to have to face reality. This simply isn't their year. Quit the race, do everything you can to defeat Don Trump, and hope for a cabinet post, or ambassadorship somewhere.
Meanwhile we know what the GOP propaganda machine is going to throw at whoever the winner eventually is. He, or she will become, according to FOX, the Russians, and right wing internet trolls everywhere, the next coming of Karl Marx, Leon Trotsky, and Joe Stalin all wrapped up in one. Indeed, every democrat running will be a Socialist Vegan ready to take away your guns, hamburgers, and gas burning cars while they make your kids become flaming gay activists. And that is even before we get to the whole southern border thing.
There might be a long way to go, but it doesn't take a crystal ball to see what is going to happen. Barring a miracle the democratic race is going to come down to Sanders, Warren, and Biden. Then, God be with the winner, because at the end of the gauntlet lurks the Great Orange Dragon, Donald John Trump, his wildly faithful mob of howling fascists, and a never ending torrent of paranoid conspiracies, lies, and petty name calling.
sic vita est
8-26-19
Yep, looks like a three horse race, and not really dazzled by any of them. It is interesting to me that the Gen-Xers and millennials cannot unify their efforts and push a younger candidate, more in tune with their preferences and challenges. Like you said, it's just not their year, sadly I thought it would be. I suppose we wait until 2024 for the next big shift in emphasis.
ReplyDelete