It is the not so calm before the storm. The Michigan and Arizona primaries are tomorrow and the press is in a feeding frenzy the likes of which have not been seen since Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck made that really, really bad movie.
Out in Arizona Romney seems in control. Various polls have him as many as 16 points ahead and as few as 4. In Michigan things are much tighter. One poll has him 4 points ahead, but the rest have him only 2 in front of Rick Santorum. That is well within a margin of error and basically makes the race too close to call.
Media hacks are braying that Michigan is a make or break effort for Romney, which of course it isn't, at least not as far as the number of delegates at risk. A loss would, however, be a huge psychological blow to his entire campaign and probably to his fund raising ability. No one wants to back a loser, especially when the office of president is at stake. Owning a piece of the second place man does you no good. In fact it could be downright disastrous if the winner decides to hold a grudge once he gets to the oval office. Massachusetts backed McGovern in 1972. In 1973 Nixon closed the Boston navy yard.
Yes, at this level politics cease to be a game of craps and more closely resembles Russian roulette.
Santorum seems to be fixating on the cultural war to a degree that appears to be obsessive. Last week he said president Obama was practicing a false theology. The other day he described the president as a "snob" because he was focused on the importance of college educations. This would seem an odd thing to say since all the blue collar middle class jobs are being sent either south or across the Pacific by people who contribute heavily to republican campaigns. He then added that college students were being indoctrinated by liberal professors. Ah now we know why he brought it up, it is the old blame it all on elitist eggs heads who don't live in the real world argument. In another interview he attacked John F. Kennedy, who is currently dead and not running for office, by saying Kennedy's idea of the separation of church and state made him sick to his stomach. "I don't believe in an America where separation of church and state is absolute," he said. John Kennedy made the offending statements in 1960. Meanwhile former Pennsylvania senator Arlen Specter claimed Santorum is lying when he says that he supported Specter only because in a private meeting Specter had promised to back George Bush supreme court nominees. Specter says that no such conversation ever took place.
Romney, forever the common man, showed up at Daytona for the NASCAR race and admitted that while he wasn't a huge fan, "I do have some friends who are NASCAR team owners." On another occasion he volunteered that his wife owned two Cadillacs in addition to the cars held in his name. He took umbrage at those who consider his wealth a detriment to the campaign and said that if you don't like Americans to be successful you should vote for the other guy. He deftly missed the difference between success and arrogance and certainly that point about a complete disconnect between him and the average working person. He also held a rally in a 65,000 seat football stadium where an estimated 1,200 people showed up.
The delegate count right now lines up like this: Romney 105, Santorum 71, Gingrich 29, Paul 18, Huntsman 2. 1144 are needed to win. Less than seventy are up for grabs tomorrow. Super Tuesday is eight days away and if it is going to be anything but a two man race Gingrich must make up major ground then.
There has been speculation about a brokered convention. There has even been wild talk about some as yet unnamed hero riding into the fray to pull this fractured gang known as the republican party together. The only plausible name to come to mind would be Chris Christie of New Jersey, but he'd have to break a promise not to run which never sets a good tone. No, the thought here is Christie is waiting for the Jenny Craig program to kick in and Obama to finish a second term before he seriously considers presidential politics.
This race is going to be settled in the field. Tomorrow will have effect, but next week will be the "continue to fish, or cut bait" deadline.
Paul is done. Gingrich will hang in because of the Adelson money. We'll see how well Santorum's brand of Christianity plays down south. And Mitt, well, he'll win in Arizona going away and probably a close one in Michigan. That means for all of seven days he will be in the driver's seat. In this political season seven days is about all you can hope for.
2-27-12
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